Валентин Павлович Вишневський, Наталія Михайлівна Шелудько, 80_05
Валентин Павлович Вишневський,
академік НАН України
Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
03680, Україна, МСП, Київ, вул. Желябова, 2
E-mail: Ця електронна адреса захищена від спам-ботів, Вам потрібно включити JavaScript для перегляду ;
Наталія Михайлівна Шелудько,
д-р екон. наук, проф.
ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
01011, Україна, Київ, вул. Панаса Мирного, 26
E-mail: Ця електронна адреса захищена від спам-ботів, Вам потрібно включити JavaScript для перегляду
Світові фінансові центри на етапі глобальної фінансової нестабільності: ризики, виклики та перспективи
Рубрика: Макроекономічні та регіональні проблеми розвитку промисловості
Ekon. promisl. 2017, 80(4): 75-96
Мова: Англійська
Анотація | Повний текст (PDF)
DOI:
References
1. IMF (2016, September 26). Global Financial Stability Report: Executive Sum-mary. International Monetary Fund. [In Russian].
2. Jones, С. (2017) Trump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency ex-ploitation. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/57f104d2-e742-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
3. Dobbs, R., Lund, S., Woetzel, J. & Mutafchieva, M. (2015). Debt and (not much) deleveraging. Report McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/ employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
4. UNDP (2014). Human Develop-ment Report 2014. Sustaining Human Pro-gress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York: United Nations Development Programme.
5. Huntington, S. (2003). The Clash of Civilization / Transl. from English. T. Velimeeva, Yu. Novikova. M: LLC "Publishing house AST" [In Russian].
6. Schwab, К. (2015, December 12). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. What It Means and How to Respond. Foreign Affairs.
7. World Bank (2013). Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Inter-dependent World. Global Development Ho-rizons. Washington, DC: World Bank.
8. Rogoff, K. (2009). The "New Normal" for Growth. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: https://www.project-syndi cate.org/commentary/the--new-normal--for-growth [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
9. Stiglitz, J. (2016). China’s Bumpy New Normal. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/china-economic-policy-debate-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2016-01 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
10. Vedder, R. (2009). The Evolution of the global financial system. eJournal USA, 5, Vol. 14, pp. 27-30. [In Russian].
11. The World Bank in the Russian Federation (2014). Russia Economic Report 32: Policy Uncertainty Clouds Medium-Term Prospects. The World Bank. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Dept, Europe and Central Asia, 32. [In Russian].
12. Globalfirepower.com. 2017 Military Strength Ranking. www.globalfirepower.com. (2017). Retrieved from: https://www.global-firepower.com/countries-listing.asp [Acces¬sed 21 Oct. 2017].
13. The Biharprabha News. BRICS Development bank top on Agenda of 6th BRICS Summit (2015). Retrieved from: http://news.biharprabha.com/2014/07/brics-development-bank-top-on-agenda-of-6th-brics-summit/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
14. Interfax. Gazprom signed a 30-year gas supply contract to China. Interfax.ru (2014). Retrieved from: http://www.interfax.ru/business/377240 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
15. Schoen, D., & Kaylan, M. (2014). Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership. New York, London: Encounter Books.
16. TASS (2017). Xi Jinping: on the prospects of Chinese-Russian relations we are full of optimism. TASS. Russian infor-mation Agency. Retrieved from: http://tass.ru/opinions/interviews/4379492 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017]. [In Russian].
17. Buchanan, Р. (2015). Imperial Overstretch. Creators. Retrieved from: http://www.creators.com/opinion/pat-bucha-nan/imperial-overstretch-.html [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
18. Subacchi, P. (2015). American Leadership in a Multipolar World. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ china-united-states-global-governance-by-paola-subacchi-2015-04/russian [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
19. Hoffman, K. (2015) Precious Metals Mining: Pros and Cons of the Gold Standard. Bloomberg Professional Services. Retrieved from: http://www.bloomberg. com/professional/blog/precious-metals-mining-pros-and-cons-of-the-gold-standard/ [Acces-sed 21 Oct. 2017].
20. Stiglitz, J.E. (2015). Asia’s Multi-lateralism. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: http://www.project-syndicate.org/ print/china-aiib-us-opposition-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-04/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
21. Hummel, J. (2011). Ben Bernanke versus Milton Friedman. The Federal Reserve’s Emergence as the U.S. Economy’s Central Planner. The Independent Review, 15 (4). pp. 485-518.
22. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisors (2016). Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress February 2016. Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers.
23. Perez, C. (2011). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages / Transl. from English. F.V. Maevsky. Moskow: Publishing house "Delo" ANH. [In Russian].
24. The Economist (2015). Watch out. It is only a matter of time before the next recession strikes. The rich world is not ready. Retrieved from: http://www.economist. com/news/leaders/21654053-it-only-matter-time-next-recession-strikes-rich-world-not-ready-watch?fsrc=nlw [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
25. Rickards, J. (2011) Currency wars: the making of the next global crisis. London: Penguin Books Ltd.
26. Duhigg, C., & Bradsher, K. (2012). How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work. Ny-times.com. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all [Accessed 21 Oct/ 2017].
27. Gates, B. (2015). Have You Hugged a Concrete Pillar Today? Gatesnotes.com. Retrieved from: http://www.gatesno tes.com/Books/Making-the-Modern-World [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
28. Wildau, G. (2015). China’s ‘mi-grant miracle’ nears an end as cheap labour dwindles. Financial Times. Retrieved from: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/211df974-ee47-11e4-98f9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3 bXyj53yA [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
29. Cbr.ru. (2017). Structure of inter-national reserves of individual countries. The Bank of Russia. Retrieved from: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/res_str.htm [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
30. Manukov, S. (2015). The Chinese bought on the sly half the world. Expert.ru. Retrieved from: http://expert.ru/2015/05/ 25/planeta-v-kogtyah-kitajskogo-drakona/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017]. [In Russian].
31. Morrison, W., & Labonte, M. (2013). China’s Holdings of U.S. Securities: Implications for the U.S. Economy. Con-gressional Research Service, CRS Report RL34314.
32. Rossi, L. (2015). China is export-ing deflation around the world, says M&G's Riddell. Citywire Global. Retrieved from: http://citywireglobal.com/news/china-is-exporting-deflation-around-the-world-says-mandgs-riddell/a812047 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
33. Street, C. (2015). China is Ex-porting Deflation to Europe. Breitbart. Retrieved from: http://www.breitbart.com/ national-security/2015/01/11/china-is-exporting-deflation-to-europe/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
34. Noble, J., & Wildau, G. (2015). China: Fear of a deflationary spiral. FT.com. Retrieved from: http://www.ft.com/ intl/cms/s/0/7a0e882e-700b-11e4-bc6a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3e5b76PPA [Ac-cessed 21 Oct. 2017].
35. Royal Society Science Policy Centre (2011). Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century. RS Policy document 03/11.
36. Cao, C., Li, N., Li, X., & Li, L. (2013). Science and Government. Reforming China's S&T system. Science, 3. pp. 460-462 [In Russian].
37. Buchanan, P. (2003). The Death of the West / Transl. from English. A. Bashkirov. M.: ACT [In Russian].
38. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisors (2015). Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress February 2015. Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers.
39. Edition.cnn.com (2008). Minorities expected to be majority in 2050. CNN.com. Retrieved from: http://edition. cnn.com/2008/US/08/13/census.minorities/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
40. Yuhas, A. (2015). Muslim popula-tion in Europe to reach 10% by 2050, new forecast shows. The Guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/ 2015/apr/02/muslim-population-growth-christians-religion-pew [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
41. Mackinder, H. (1904). The Geo-graphical Pivot of History. The Geographical Journal, 4, Vol. 23, pp. 421-437.
42. Staff Research Report (2017). China-Russia Military-to-Military Relations: Moving Toward a Higher Level of Cooperation. U.S.-China Economic and Se-curity Review Commission.
43. Allen & Overy (2015). Generation ¥. RMB: the new global currency. An Economist Intelligence Unit report.
44. Long, K. (2015). Banking industry news & analysis of international finance. Euro-money magazine. Retrieved from: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3446564/RMB-usage-hampered-by-expertise-liquidity-deficit.html [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
45. IMF (2016). IMF Launches New SDR Basket Including Chinese Renminbi, Determines New Currency Amounts. Re-trieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Articles/2016/09/30/AM16-PR16440-IMF-Launches-New-SDR-Basket-Including-Chinese-Renminbi [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
46. PWC (2017). The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050? World in 2050 – Summary report. www.pwc.com.
47. National Intelligence Council (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. NIC, USA.
48. Tavlas, G. (1998). The International Use of Currencies: The U.S. Dollar and the Euro. Finance and Development, 35 (2), pр. 46-49.
49. The Economist (2015). The Great Fall of China. Retrieved from: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21662544-fear-about-chinas-economy-can-be-overdone-investors-are-right-be-nervous-great-fall [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
50. IMF (2017). World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainab-le Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges. Retrieved from: http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
академік НАН України
Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
03680, Україна, МСП, Київ, вул. Желябова, 2
E-mail: Ця електронна адреса захищена від спам-ботів, Вам потрібно включити JavaScript для перегляду ;
Наталія Михайлівна Шелудько,
д-р екон. наук, проф.
ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
01011, Україна, Київ, вул. Панаса Мирного, 26
E-mail: Ця електронна адреса захищена від спам-ботів, Вам потрібно включити JavaScript для перегляду
Світові фінансові центри на етапі глобальної фінансової нестабільності: ризики, виклики та перспективи
Рубрика: Макроекономічні та регіональні проблеми розвитку промисловості
Ekon. promisl. 2017, 80(4): 75-96
Мова: Англійська
Анотація | Повний текст (PDF)
DOI:
Анотація: На основі застосування розробленого методичного підходу до оцінки економіко-монетарного потенціалу визначено ключові тренди сегментації світової фінансової ар-хітектури. У середньостроковій перспективі (якщо абстрагуватися від британського фунта і японської ієни) вона буде представлена нестійкими зонами переважного впливу долара США – відносно стабільною, євро – що скорочуватиметься і юаня – що зростатиме. Російський рубль залишиться на світовій периферії, а очікуване посилення його впливу матиме переважно регіональний характер. Також визначено ключові ризики і виклики, що складають нинішню "фінансову нормальність", в умовах якої в майбутні роки буде формуватися нова політико-економічна структура світу.
Ключові слова: глобальна фінансова нестабільність, грошово-кредитна політика, боротьба валют, нова "фінансова нормальність".
JEL code: Е52, E58.
Ключові слова: глобальна фінансова нестабільність, грошово-кредитна політика, боротьба валют, нова "фінансова нормальність".
JEL code: Е52, E58.
References
1. IMF (2016, September 26). Global Financial Stability Report: Executive Sum-mary. International Monetary Fund. [In Russian].
2. Jones, С. (2017) Trump’s top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency ex-ploitation. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/57f104d2-e742-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
3. Dobbs, R., Lund, S., Woetzel, J. & Mutafchieva, M. (2015). Debt and (not much) deleveraging. Report McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/ employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
4. UNDP (2014). Human Develop-ment Report 2014. Sustaining Human Pro-gress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York: United Nations Development Programme.
5. Huntington, S. (2003). The Clash of Civilization / Transl. from English. T. Velimeeva, Yu. Novikova. M: LLC "Publishing house AST" [In Russian].
6. Schwab, К. (2015, December 12). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. What It Means and How to Respond. Foreign Affairs.
7. World Bank (2013). Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Inter-dependent World. Global Development Ho-rizons. Washington, DC: World Bank.
8. Rogoff, K. (2009). The "New Normal" for Growth. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: https://www.project-syndi cate.org/commentary/the--new-normal--for-growth [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
9. Stiglitz, J. (2016). China’s Bumpy New Normal. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/china-economic-policy-debate-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2016-01 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
10. Vedder, R. (2009). The Evolution of the global financial system. eJournal USA, 5, Vol. 14, pp. 27-30. [In Russian].
11. The World Bank in the Russian Federation (2014). Russia Economic Report 32: Policy Uncertainty Clouds Medium-Term Prospects. The World Bank. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Dept, Europe and Central Asia, 32. [In Russian].
12. Globalfirepower.com. 2017 Military Strength Ranking. www.globalfirepower.com. (2017). Retrieved from: https://www.global-firepower.com/countries-listing.asp [Acces¬sed 21 Oct. 2017].
13. The Biharprabha News. BRICS Development bank top on Agenda of 6th BRICS Summit (2015). Retrieved from: http://news.biharprabha.com/2014/07/brics-development-bank-top-on-agenda-of-6th-brics-summit/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
14. Interfax. Gazprom signed a 30-year gas supply contract to China. Interfax.ru (2014). Retrieved from: http://www.interfax.ru/business/377240 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
15. Schoen, D., & Kaylan, M. (2014). Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership. New York, London: Encounter Books.
16. TASS (2017). Xi Jinping: on the prospects of Chinese-Russian relations we are full of optimism. TASS. Russian infor-mation Agency. Retrieved from: http://tass.ru/opinions/interviews/4379492 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017]. [In Russian].
17. Buchanan, Р. (2015). Imperial Overstretch. Creators. Retrieved from: http://www.creators.com/opinion/pat-bucha-nan/imperial-overstretch-.html [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
18. Subacchi, P. (2015). American Leadership in a Multipolar World. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ china-united-states-global-governance-by-paola-subacchi-2015-04/russian [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
19. Hoffman, K. (2015) Precious Metals Mining: Pros and Cons of the Gold Standard. Bloomberg Professional Services. Retrieved from: http://www.bloomberg. com/professional/blog/precious-metals-mining-pros-and-cons-of-the-gold-standard/ [Acces-sed 21 Oct. 2017].
20. Stiglitz, J.E. (2015). Asia’s Multi-lateralism. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from: http://www.project-syndicate.org/ print/china-aiib-us-opposition-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-04/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
21. Hummel, J. (2011). Ben Bernanke versus Milton Friedman. The Federal Reserve’s Emergence as the U.S. Economy’s Central Planner. The Independent Review, 15 (4). pp. 485-518.
22. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisors (2016). Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress February 2016. Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers.
23. Perez, C. (2011). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages / Transl. from English. F.V. Maevsky. Moskow: Publishing house "Delo" ANH. [In Russian].
24. The Economist (2015). Watch out. It is only a matter of time before the next recession strikes. The rich world is not ready. Retrieved from: http://www.economist. com/news/leaders/21654053-it-only-matter-time-next-recession-strikes-rich-world-not-ready-watch?fsrc=nlw [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
25. Rickards, J. (2011) Currency wars: the making of the next global crisis. London: Penguin Books Ltd.
26. Duhigg, C., & Bradsher, K. (2012). How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work. Ny-times.com. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all [Accessed 21 Oct/ 2017].
27. Gates, B. (2015). Have You Hugged a Concrete Pillar Today? Gatesnotes.com. Retrieved from: http://www.gatesno tes.com/Books/Making-the-Modern-World [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
28. Wildau, G. (2015). China’s ‘mi-grant miracle’ nears an end as cheap labour dwindles. Financial Times. Retrieved from: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/211df974-ee47-11e4-98f9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3 bXyj53yA [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
29. Cbr.ru. (2017). Structure of inter-national reserves of individual countries. The Bank of Russia. Retrieved from: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/res_str.htm [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
30. Manukov, S. (2015). The Chinese bought on the sly half the world. Expert.ru. Retrieved from: http://expert.ru/2015/05/ 25/planeta-v-kogtyah-kitajskogo-drakona/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017]. [In Russian].
31. Morrison, W., & Labonte, M. (2013). China’s Holdings of U.S. Securities: Implications for the U.S. Economy. Con-gressional Research Service, CRS Report RL34314.
32. Rossi, L. (2015). China is export-ing deflation around the world, says M&G's Riddell. Citywire Global. Retrieved from: http://citywireglobal.com/news/china-is-exporting-deflation-around-the-world-says-mandgs-riddell/a812047 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
33. Street, C. (2015). China is Ex-porting Deflation to Europe. Breitbart. Retrieved from: http://www.breitbart.com/ national-security/2015/01/11/china-is-exporting-deflation-to-europe/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
34. Noble, J., & Wildau, G. (2015). China: Fear of a deflationary spiral. FT.com. Retrieved from: http://www.ft.com/ intl/cms/s/0/7a0e882e-700b-11e4-bc6a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3e5b76PPA [Ac-cessed 21 Oct. 2017].
35. Royal Society Science Policy Centre (2011). Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century. RS Policy document 03/11.
36. Cao, C., Li, N., Li, X., & Li, L. (2013). Science and Government. Reforming China's S&T system. Science, 3. pp. 460-462 [In Russian].
37. Buchanan, P. (2003). The Death of the West / Transl. from English. A. Bashkirov. M.: ACT [In Russian].
38. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisors (2015). Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress February 2015. Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers.
39. Edition.cnn.com (2008). Minorities expected to be majority in 2050. CNN.com. Retrieved from: http://edition. cnn.com/2008/US/08/13/census.minorities/ [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
40. Yuhas, A. (2015). Muslim popula-tion in Europe to reach 10% by 2050, new forecast shows. The Guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/ 2015/apr/02/muslim-population-growth-christians-religion-pew [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
41. Mackinder, H. (1904). The Geo-graphical Pivot of History. The Geographical Journal, 4, Vol. 23, pp. 421-437.
42. Staff Research Report (2017). China-Russia Military-to-Military Relations: Moving Toward a Higher Level of Cooperation. U.S.-China Economic and Se-curity Review Commission.
43. Allen & Overy (2015). Generation ¥. RMB: the new global currency. An Economist Intelligence Unit report.
44. Long, K. (2015). Banking industry news & analysis of international finance. Euro-money magazine. Retrieved from: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3446564/RMB-usage-hampered-by-expertise-liquidity-deficit.html [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
45. IMF (2016). IMF Launches New SDR Basket Including Chinese Renminbi, Determines New Currency Amounts. Re-trieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Articles/2016/09/30/AM16-PR16440-IMF-Launches-New-SDR-Basket-Including-Chinese-Renminbi [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
46. PWC (2017). The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050? World in 2050 – Summary report. www.pwc.com.
47. National Intelligence Council (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. NIC, USA.
48. Tavlas, G. (1998). The International Use of Currencies: The U.S. Dollar and the Euro. Finance and Development, 35 (2), pр. 46-49.
49. The Economist (2015). The Great Fall of China. Retrieved from: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21662544-fear-about-chinas-economy-can-be-overdone-investors-are-right-be-nervous-great-fall [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].
50. IMF (2017). World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainab-le Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges. Retrieved from: http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017 [Accessed 21 Oct. 2017].